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There have been certain implications, depending on the game, but nothing definitive.
Major spoilersfor the Fallout season 1 ending follow.

The Fallout TV show season 1 finale actually posits a third option: Vault-Tec itself.
And while it doesn’t definitively say that Vault-Tec did it, it does everything but that.
There are ongoing peace talks, despite the looming threat of nuclear war.

How can you guarantee results?"
“By dropping the bomb ourselves,” says Barb Howard.
The show doesn’t elaborate on this much as Cooper Howard is interrupted with a different reveal.

“A nuclear event would be a tragedy, but also an opportunity,” continues Barb Howard.
Did Vault-Tec drop the bomb?
We don’t see that explicitly.

But the show absolutely makes the case that Vault-Tec was fully prepared and willing to do it.
The first season of Fallout is now streaming on Prime Video.
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